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Unemployment in southern New Jersey, already at the highest levels in the state, worsened in October even as the state's jobless rate improved.

In Atlantic County, the unemployment rate climbed to 13.9 percent from 13.3 in September, according to seasonally adjusted data released Monday by the state Department of Labor and Workforce Development.

Cumberland County saw its jobless rate hit 14.4 percent in October, up from 13.8 percent the month before.

Area economists say the counties are returning to old patterns of underperforming the nation on employment.

Oliver Cooke, an economics professor at Richard Stockton College, said that through the 1990s Atlantic and Cumberland counties' jobless rates ran 2 to 5 percentage points higher than the U.S. rate. With October's numbers, they are similarly above the U.S. rate of 10.2 percent for October.

"I think these local unemployment rates are likely to remain elevated over much of 2010," Cooke said.

And while poorer households and weaker consumer spending will ensure a rough U.S. economy "for at least another year, this period could very well last considerably longer in South Jersey," Cooke said.

Richard Perniciaro, director of the Center for Regional and Business Research at Atlantic Cape Community College, said the increased unemployment may not all be cyclical.

"We're starting to worry now whether this is becoming a structural problem, whether this gap will settle in and won't be just a seasonal thing or just a reflection of the national economy," Perniciaro said. "Even if the casino sector is doing moderately well a year from now, what will be the employment level? I'd hate to say those gaps are here to stay for a while. That would mean going back 30 years."

Indeed, current southern N.J. county jobless levels are higher than any reached since 1990. Perniciaro thinks they're the highest since about 1983.

Cape May County experienced slight improvement in October, its rate easing from 13.1 percent in September to 12.9 percent.

But Cumberland, Atlantic and Cape May counties continued to have the highest jobless rates in the state.

On Thursday, the state announced a New Jersey unemployment rate for October of 9.7 percent, down from 9.8 percent even though the state lost 1,800 jobs during the month. Such seeming disparities occur when fewer people are counted as seeking and available for work.

October unemployment in Salem County increased to 12.1 percent from 11.2 percent, and in the Camden metro area to 10.6 percent from 10.4 percent. Upstate, October unemployment was 9.5 percent in metro Newark, 9.4 percent in Bergen-Passaic counties, 8.9 percent in metro Edison, 8.3 percent in metro Trenton and 12 percent in Hudson County.

Perniciaro said it's hard to see where labor market improvement would come from for southern New Jersey before next spring. January and February will be particularly bleak.

Even if casinos rebound, they won't hire until spring; the next known construction project of size, the garage at The Walk, won't begin until spring; and new home construction won't be helped much by the extended home-buyer-tax-credit program, he said.

And there will be new concerns such as what the new owners of Resorts Atlantic City and the three Trump casino hotels will do. "They're certainly not going to hire a bunch of people," he said.

The most hopeful developments are the solar panel assembly plant coming to Millville and the aviation research and technology park developing in Galloway Township, he said.

When the national and regional economies recover, "people will have to start to improvise and look at new things to do down here. ... If we're going to have green jobs or air-traffic control research, we've got to go out and get them," Perniciaro said.

Otherwise, the return to pre-recession employment levels could take years. Cooke said it took eight years for the Atlantic City area to regain the jobs it lost during the early 1990s recession.

"I would love to be proved wrong and see local and regional job markets come back more quickly, but I'm not going to hold my breath," Cooke said.

Perniciaro said that as he watches the county unemployment rates climb each month - having risen steadily from 8.2 percent a year ago - he's reminded of lopsided kids' baseball games.

"They just stop the score when it gets too high. I wish we could do that with the jobless rate," he said.

Contact Kevin Post:

609-272-7250

KPost@pressofac.com

 

2 comments:

• JerseyDevil (544) posts 3:46 am

  I guess is time to leave this glorious state.

• Justathought (34) posts 3:05 pm

  Wait until they close the Hilton.

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