9:55 a.m.: A Flood Advisory has been put into effect for Middle Township to Avalon, on south in Cape May County until 3 p.m. on Friday. Heavy rain is set to move into this region by 11 a.m. {span style=”text-decoration: underline;”}1 to 1.5 inches{/span} inches of rain is expected by sunset Friday. If you see a flooded road, turn around, don’t drown!

Flash flooding: Turn around, don't drown!

A Flood Watch is in effect and a Coastal Flood Advisory will be in effect Friday night as we end the week much like we began it, dark, dreary and rainy.

Last night, heavy rain brought a deluge to Cape May County. Between 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain fell in our southernmost county. Reports of heavy roadway flooding on Route 9 as well high water in Cape May Court House made for tricky traveling.

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We are on the edge of a boundary that is straddling across I-195 in the middle of the state. To the south of it, where we are, we have no problem getting into the deep, tropical air from the Caribbean.

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This map shows the precipitable water (PWAT) values. PWATs are a measure of how much moisture is in a column of air. The brighter the color, the higher the PWATs. Extremely humid air has a direct show from Cuba and the Carribean into South Jersey. Courtesy of Nullschool.net

The rain then cuts off north of I-195, right where the boundary is. To the north of there, high pressure has a hold of the region, keeping their day mostly dry.

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This is the radar loop as of 8:50 a.m. Dry air is stuffing the rain around I-195, leaving South Jersey wet. 

On Friday, Cape May county is likely to see another 1 to 1.5 inches of rain fall. South Jersey as a whole will see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain come on down. Rain will be heaviest Friday morning. Then, as we go into the afternoon, places south of Route 40 will still see the heavier rain. The rain-cooled air will push the boundary to this area. Only a few showers are expected north of Route 40.

We may be able to enjoy dry weather for our last Friday afternoon rush before a different kind of rush moves into our roads, the rush from weekend beach-goers. Only places east of the Parkway will likely have showers, which will continue into the evening.

Typically, due to our sandy soil, we can take on a lot of water before we get into roadway, stream and creek flooding issues. With numbers like this, though, we are pushing our luck. Therefore, a flood watch continues to be in effect. The National Weather Service extended the end time to 6 p.m. on Saturday.

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A Flood Watch Continues to remain in effect for South Jersey until 6 p.m. on Saturday. Image is via PivotalWeather.

While this evening will be mostly dry, showers will return again after midnight. This will be with a warm front that lifts north. Computer models have struggled in the past with the timing of its passage. The passage time is critical because it will determine when the rain goes off. I believe this will occur during the mid-morning on Saturday.

Also on Friday night, we will enter minor coastal flood stage. A Coastal Flood Advisory is out between 9 p.m. and 2 a.m. Move your cars if you need to and avoid the bayshore roads during this time.

After the warm front lifts, we’ll still have a few showers for Saturday. However, it shouldn’t be a washout. The driest time will be from about 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. Another disturbance will kick off a couple of showers Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. However, I believe the afternoon will then be dry and the sun (yes, the sun!) will come out. Temperatures go into the low 80s, creating a nice end to our weekend.

We’ll likely start Monday morning dry with some sun before showers return.

Tuesday and Wednesday then will be summery and stormy, with highs around 80.

Meteorologist

This is my first newspaper but not my first forecast for NJ. I graduated with a B.S. in Meteorology from Rutgers. Two TV internships gave me a taste for the newsroom. Then, after nearly 4 years in private NJ weather, I'm forecasting South Jersey for you.