A few remnant showers may linger through noon Sunday, but otherwise we should clear out between late morning and early afternoon to salvage the rest of the day.
I expect to see periods of sunny skies before sunset. Low temperatures should only fall into the 60s tonight thanks to marine influence.
Monday still looks like the best day of the holiday weekend. Skies should be mostly sunny with a warmer and summery feel. Southwest winds mean humidity will be present but not unbearable.
Tuesday looks like more of the same as winds shift from southwest to south. This should bump temperatures into the low- to mid-80s with a bit more humidity than Monday.
No matter what your favorite activity is when it comes to shore towns, there’s a time of day…
At some point between Wednesday and Thursday, I expect a slow-moving cold front to move through the region from the northwest.
This should provide standard frontal precipitation for the first part of Wednesday.
A weak low-pressure disturbance could then form along the frontal boundary and bring more concentrated rainfall to New Jersey Wednesday night into Thursday.
We might need most of Thursday for the slow-moving frontal boundary to clear out all remaining rainfall.
Friday looks to start dry and at least partly sunny in the wake of the departing cold front.
Friday evening through next weekend is then incredibly uncertain, as it could include influence from Hurricane Irma.
Irma is starting to approach the northeast side of the Caribbean. The Barbuda area is watching Irma’s near-future path for hopefully a near miss to the northeast.
Once Irma moves beyond that region, several upper-level atmospheric steering currents over the Eastern U.S. will play a big part in its ultimate trajectory.
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An upper-level trough is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. If the trough swings through close enough to interact with Irma, then Irma would likely get kicked out to sea and stay off the U.S. coast. If the upper-level trough retreats to the north too fast, then Irma will take a wider curve, possibly including landfall in the Southeast. If the upper-level trough splits, then the southernmost piece of energy could pull Irma into the Delmarva Peninsula or surrounding Mid-Atlantic U.S. coastal regions.
I know that sounds very technical. What you need to know is that specific expected U.S. impacts are not locked in yet, but it is starting to seem like someone will be affected on the East Coast.
At this point, I recommend having a hurricane safety plan in place for the Sept. 9-12 period.
By Tuesday, I should be able to tell you whether South Jersey needs to exercise that plan.