A full day removed from a powerful cold front, Sunday will be a much drier and cooler day, while keeping plenty of sunshine around. That will continue into Monday, with an unsettled midweek ahead.
Dew points Friday morning were in the 65- to 70-degree range — that’s pretty sticky. Saturday morning, they were around 65 degrees.
Sunday morning, they will be around 40, pretty darn dry for the last day of May. As you may imagine, with so much dry air around, clouds will be pretty non-existent. We’ll be mostly sunny for the day.
SOMERS POINT — With most people spending more time at home due to the new coronavirus pandem…
Temperatures will start in the 50s, mildest along the shore, and lowest in the Pine Barrens, like the western portions of Stafford Township.
The afternoon will bring high temperatures around 70 degrees, even at the shore. That will be 5 to 7 degrees below average for this time of year. Of course, still it will be a comfortable day, and cookouts, jogs in the park and the Boardwalk will be good.
We’re looking at a seasonable cool and clear night. The combination of a mainly clear sky, light winds and low dew points promote this radiational cooling, when the heat from the day effectively escapes into outer space. We’ll be in the 60s and 50s for the evening. Overnight, morning lows will range from the upper 40s for most of the mainland to the mid-50s along the shore.
Monday will be about the same. High pressure will move in from the Great Lakes states, and we’ll continue our dry air and sunshine. It’ll be a very comfortable day, though a light layer at the shore will be a help. Highs will be just above 70 inland, with mid-60s at the shore, as a sea breeze works in. Put on the sunscreen and have the sunglasses, as the UV Index will be very high.
High pressure will pass through New Jersey and move offshore Monday night. We’ll be dry, though we’ll start to get some clouds in, and a southerly wind will keep us in the 50s for our night. You can leave the windows open.
Then, we turn unsettled. It looks like two rounds of showers and thunderstorms will pass somewhere between Tuesday and Thursday morning. They both will be fast-moving complexes, and severe weather will not be ruled out.
As I noted, it’s no guarantee South Jersey gets them. These are the kind of systems where the track isn’t really known until the day before. So, on Monday, we’ll time what happens Tuesday, and then Tuesday we’ll time out Wednesday into Thursday morning. Either way, don’t expect washouts. There will be sunshine, too. Highs will be in the upper 60s (shore) to mid-70s (mainland) Tuesday. Then, as southerly winds really get going, expect a summery day. We’ll pop into the 80s for many Wednesday, with mid-70s along the shore.
Hurricane forecast increases again in July update
The July 7 Atlantic Hurricane season update from Colorado State University has another increase in the amount of tropical activity expected.
Including the fived named storms that occurred at the time of the July 7 update, which put the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season on a record breaking pace, CSU forecasts 20, named tropical storms or hurricanes to occur. That is an slight increase from the 19 last predicted in the June update. Out of the 20, 9 hurricanes and 4 major, category 3 or greater (at least 111 mph sustained winds) are forecasted, the same as the June update.
Updated seasonal #hurricane forecast from @ColoradoStateU— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) July 7, 2020
continues call for very active 2020 Atlantic #hurricane season. New forecast calls for 20 named storms (including the 5 that have already formed), 9 hurricanes and 4 major (Cat 3+) hurricanes. https://t.co/wIVwJdWMcO pic.twitter.com/OYOMcIIBDz
The 1981-2010 average of activity includes 12.1 tropical storms, 6.4 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes, respectively.
There still remains an above average risk of a major hurricane making landfall on the East Coast of the United States, including the Florida Peninsula. The 45% chance is virtually unchanged from earlier updates On average, there has been a 31% probability in the last century.
CSU attributes warmer than average waters in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean, slightly warmer than average waters in the tropical Atlantic as reasons for the active forecast. Furthermore, a possible transition from a neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation to a La Nina late this summer would promote an active season. In a La Nina, there's a lack of wind shear, or change of winds with height, which can rip storms apart.
Tropical cyclone names rotate every six years. Exceptionally notable hurricane names, such as Sandy, become retired by the World Meteorological Organization. However, no names were retired in 2014, meaning 2020 will have the same list as then.
Arthur - Used
It's the sixth year in a row that a named tropical system has developed in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin before the June 1 official start.
Bertha - Used
Tropical Storm Bertha is the second tropical storm or greater storm to have formed in the Atlantic Hurricane basin before the official start June 1. This is only the sixth time since records have been kept in the 1700s that two tropical storm or greater storms have formed before the start.
Cristobal - Used
Dolly - Used
Dolly was the third earliest fourth named (D storm) storm in Atlantic Hurricane history, which goes back to 1851. It also flared up further north than any tropical storm before July 1 in recorded history, according to Sam Lilo, postdoctoral researcher at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
#Dolly has formed in the North Atlantic - the 3rd earliest 4th Atlantic named storm formation on record (since 1851). Danielle is earliest on 6/20/2016. Debby is 2nd earliest on 6/23/2012 at 12 UTC. Dolly in 2020 formed on June 23 at 1615 UTC. #hurricane pic.twitter.com/1Ha6ZnxHqc— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) June 23, 2020
Edouard - Used
The Atlantic Hurricane season continued its blistering pace. Edouard, which developed July 6, was the earliest fifth named (with the letter "E") storm in Atlantic Hurricane history, which goes back to 1851. This is according to Philip Klotzbach, Meteorologist at Colorado State University, who issues a highly reputable hurricane forecast each year and is used by The Press.
The previous record was held in 2005 with Emily, which occurred on July 12. 2005 holds the record for the most active hurricane season on record in the Atlantic Hurricane basin, with 27 named storms.
However, all of the storms to this point have all been tropical storms. Some, like Edouard, likely would not have even been noticed before the satellite era, as they were out to sea and may have been missed by shipping routes.
Fay - Used
Tropical Storm Fay will go in the record books for multiple reasons.
- It is the tenth tropical storm or hurricane to make landfall in New Jersey since 1900.
- It made landfall just south of Holgate, on Long Beach Island, this is, incredibly, about ten miles away from where Tropical Storm Irene and Superstorm Sandy made landfall, right near Brigantine.
- Fay was the earliest sixth tropical storm or hurricane to form in the Atlantic Hurricane basin, since records started in 1851. On other words, it was the earliest "F" storm on record.