storm coverage

Flooding along White Horse Pike in Absecon due to Storm Stella Tuesday March 14, 2017. Winter Storm Stella, raked-up the Southern New Jersey coast with high winds and heavy rains, causing moderate beach erosion and tidal flooding. (The Press of Atlantic City / Edward Lea Staff Photographer)

1:00 p.m. update: All of the flood warnings have been expired. The steady rain has cleared South Jersey. For the rest of the day, anticipate on hit or miss showers. A flood watch will still be in effect until 1 a.m. on Saturday. 

12:15 p.m. update: With just over 1.5 inches of rain in this story, Atlantic City International Airport likely just did it. We likely just had the wettest year on record. 

11:05 a.m. update: The coastal flood advisory has expired. The Sluice Creek in South Dennis is still in minor flood stage, but that is all. The next concern would be river flooding. Rivers typically crest hours, if not a day or two after the heavy rain. Gauges have been risen. I'll pay attention. 

10 a.m. update: The wind advisory has been dropped, the coastal flood advisory has been removed for some and flood warning has been extended. 

The flood warning has been extended until 12:30 p.m. for Cape May County north of Middle Township and Avalon, the northern half of Cumberland County, Atlantic County and southern Ocean County. The back edge of the steady rain will come to an end on Friday morning. The back edge of that rain was in Delaware as of 10:00 a.m. From 11 a.m. to 1 p.m., that will push out of South Jersey. The warning was extended to cover for this. 

Rainfall totals have generally been between 1.25 to 1.75 inches of rain so far with the event. You can expect another 0.10 to 0.25 inches before that steady rain moves out. Afterwards, expect hit or miss showers for the rest of the day. I will track whether Atlantic City International Airport has enough rain to make 2018 the wettest year on record (records go back to 1943).

Rainfall Totals 2

Between 1.25 inches to 1.75 inches of rain has fallen in South Jersey through 10 a.m. on Friday. 

Road flooding was seen earlier on Friday morning. Coastal flooding increased the impact driving on the roadways. However, most places have receded below flood stage levels. One two tide gauges, one in Dennis Township and one in Greenwich Township, will be in minor flood stage for the reminder of the morning. 

Flooding along the Delaware Bay shoreline in Cape May County will continue. No further issues are anticipated in Cumberland County. 

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No coastal flooding will be expected with the p.m. high tide Friday. Saturday morning will run the risk for another round of coastal flooding along the Delaware Bay and around Long Beach Island. 

6 a.m. Update: A flood warning is now in effect for all of South Jersey with coastal flooding peaking early Friday morning.

The flood warning will be in effect through 8:30 - 8:45 a.m. Between 0.75 to 1.25 inches of rain has fallen through 6 a.m. on Friday morning. Areas of roadway flood has already been evident across South Jersey.

As of 12 a.m., Atlantic City International Airport is just 0.83 inches shy of the all time wettest year in recorded history, last occurring in 1948.

Rainfall Totals

Rainfall through 6 a.m. on Friday has totaled 0.75 to 1.25 inches across much of South Jersey. 

River flooding will be the main concern throughout the morning. Stream flow is well above normal, and near the 99th percentile on the Tuckahoe, Great Egg Harbor and Mullica Rivers. If they rise above their banks, nearby houses would see water on their lawns and riverside roadways could be closed.

Another 0.75 to 1.25 inches of rain will be likely on Friday and Friday night. This will continue to bring concerns of roadways and river flooding. Drive slowly on the road for the Friday morning commute. Remember, if you see flood waters, turn around, don't drown! Most flood deaths occur in vehicles, according to the National Weather Service. 

In addition to flooding from the rain, there is flooding from the sea. A coastal flood advisory will be in effect until 10 a.m. on Friday.

The combination of the full moon, onshore winds and rain are the cause for the water spilling on to the land. Of as 6 a.m., some places along the Atlantic Ocean waters have already crested, though still remain in minor flood stage. The back bays and Delaware Bay will continue to rise through the morning commute. Moderate flood stage will be likely on the Delaware Bay, as the southerly winds pushes all of the water toward the New Jersey side. 

These are the concerning places with the coastal flooding. 

Ocean County

Up to one foot of water of saltwater inundation will be likely in susceptible locations. Long Beach Island typically fares OK, without any issues, in this type of set-up.

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Atlantic County

Flooding begins at the most susceptible locations in West Atlantic City.

Flooding begins on the White Horse Pike in Atlantic City, along the back bays in Atlantic City and Ventnor, and on the Black Horse Pike in West Atlantic City.

Flooding begins on the north end of Brigantine.

Bayside flooding begins in Margate.

Flooding begins along Bay Avenue in Somers Point.

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Cape May County

Flooding begins on the access roads to the 9th Street bridge into Ocean City (NJ Route 52).

Flooding begins in the Haven Avenue Basin area of Ocean City (24th Street through 34th Street).

Flooding begins along Ocean Drive  between Ocean City and Strathmere.

Flooding begins along the Delaware Bay shoreline from Reeds Beach to North Cape May.

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Cumberland County

Flooding begins in Greenwich and Fairton.

Up to one foot of water of saltwater inundation will be likely in susceptible locations in Bivalve, Fortesue, etc.

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If the rain and coastal flooding was not enough to cause tricky traveling this morning, the winds have been howling. 

A wind advisory will be in effect until 10 a.m. Friday. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph have brought a wind-swept rain to the region. Atlantic City International Airport reported a 47 mph wind gust early Friday morning, with Upper Deerfield clocking in at 44 mph. 

The winds will stay in this range for the next couple of hours. However, they could have been much worse. Winds at the 850 millibar layer, about 5,000 feet, where we usually look to find out how strong gusts could be, are 60-75 mph. Even just about 800 feet above us, winds at the shore are in the 60s.

This has failed to fully translate down to the surface thanks to a layer of stable air. 

VentuSky winds

Winds Friday morning 250 meters above the surface (about 800 feet) about in the 60s at the shore. 

The winds, and rain coverage will decrease as the day goes on. Moderate ran will continue through around 10 a.m. Then, expect hit or miss showers. 

Original Story

The calendar says it will be the winter solstice, but the only thing about winter Friday is it will be the shortest day of the year. Strong winds, heavy rain and a round of coastal flooding will likely start the day as our multi-impact storm moves through.

Winds will continue to be stiff, sustained at 16-24 mph. It’s a very warm wind, though, and temperatures will be well into the 50s and even 60s.

There will be two main features to watch for Friday morning. The first will be the coastal flooding. Water levels will be in flood stage through about the morning commute. Flood stage will largely be minor. However, pockets of moderate flood stage will not be ruled out. Move your cars if you will be along that first block or two of bayside roadways. A few roads may be coned off between the mainland and shore. In those areas of moderate flood stage, water starts to get close to homes and structures.

The second will be a potential line of thunderstorms. The air will be quite wet, and if a lines goes through, it will bring areas of roadway flooding for those on both the mainland and shore.

By the afternoon, the worst of the storm will have passed as our first cold front passes.

The afternoon will see hit or miss showers and temperatures tumble back to seasonable levels. In fact, I would not rule out large chunks of dry time.

A second cold front will then pass on Friday evening. This will be the departing blow, so to speak. Another shot of rain will come through this, with the driest areas toward Cape May. Carry the umbrella, and the winter coat, heading out.

Rain will then depart between midnight Friday night and sunrise on Saturday morning. In all, rainfall totals of 1.5 to 2.5 inches will generally be the case. River flooding will be a real possibility, especially given how wet our year has been. So wet, in fact, we likely break the record for wettest year on record after this storm. Furthermore, if your basement floods, this could be a time that it does so.

Saturday will be a dry day, with 15-20 mph west-northwest winds. A pocket of moisture will be present for the day, though, which will limit our sunshine. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s to around 50, about 5 degrees above average for this time of year.

Sunday will have no issues if you will be traveling or getting in that last-minute holiday shopping. Expect plenty of sunshine, with highs in the upper 40s.

A weak system Sunday night will bring in a few rain showers, possibly mixing with snow on the mainland.

Any snow will be unlikely to accumulate, and they will move out by sunrise on Monday morning.

Meteorologist

This is my first newspaper but not my first forecast for NJ. I graduated with a B.S. in Meteorology from Rutgers. Two TV internships gave me a taste for the newsroom. Then, after nearly 4 years in private NJ weather, I'm forecasting South Jersey for you.

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