Wildwood Crest Shelf Cloud Thunderstorm

A shelf cloud announces the arrival of a thunderstorm into Wildwood Crest on August 7, 2019.

In a 2019 that brought eight tornadoes to New Jersey and the most number of severe thunderstorm warnings since records started in 1989, there’s a chance to add to those numbers Tuesday.

We’ll start off Tuesday morning much differently than how we started the night Monday. The crisp feel has been replaced by a sticky airmass as moist air made a big surge overnight. Dew points will be around 70 degrees and sticky for most of the day.

To the west, will be a decaying complex of thunderstorms that organized into a large system (called a mesoscale convective system).

This MCS will be the reason for our severe weather Tuesday.

The risk for a storm will begin between 9 and 11 a.m. This shouldn’t be severe so don’t cancel your outdoor plans, as coverage should be limited into the early afternoon.

A strong southwest breeze will develop around 15 mph, with gusts to 30 mph.

I’m eyeing a lull in activity from the early afternoon until around 6 p.m. This will be a critical time. If it clouds up, our severe weather risk will go way down (highs in the low 80s). If sun comes through, we’ll be eyeing another severe weather event (highs in the upper 80s on the mainland).

Here’s the deal with the severe weather. From 6 p.m. to midnight will be the time frame as a cold front passes. Note that it won’t storm the whole time. In terms of specific threats, wind damage will be of the highest concern. This will be followed by the risk for a weak tornado or two. Finally, hail will be possible, mainly of the small, nondamaging variety.

In terms of flooding from the rain, any thunderstorm will bring areas of roadway flooding. Localized four-inch amounts could be possible. However, most will stay well under that.

Make sure to stay weather aware during the day. Follow me online for more information.

After midnight, the rain will end. We should get to about partly cloudy, too. Lows will be in the low 70s, with plenty of humidity in the air. It’ll feel like a steam bath.

Wednesday will see some sunshine to start. The front will sit just to our south. Winds will flip to the northeast, bringing us cooler, but still sticky air. Highs will be on either side of 80 degrees. Isolated afternoon storms will be expected, mainly south of the White Horse Pike. However, no severe weather is likely.

Wednesday night looks to be cool enough to leave the windows open at night. We’ll sit between 65-70 degrees under a partly cloudy sky. Thursday will be pretty much the same as Wednesday. The onshore flow will continue. It’ll be a mostly dry day for everyone, with just a spot p.m. storm toward Cape May.

Expect a few inches of bay water along sensitive bayshore roadways on Wednesday night around the time of high tide. Minor coastal flooding will be expected.

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