We’ll copy and paste Tuesday’s weather into Wednesday, with winds, a round of coastal flooding, hazardous seas but dry weather. The rest of the week will be calmer, as temperatures warm up.
We’ll start the day with a mix of clouds and sun, with temperatures starting in the upper 40s.
Sustained winds of 15-25 mph will be likely throughout the day. Wind gusts will be 35-40 mph. All of this will be windy, but slightly less so than Tuesday, when Atlantic City International Airport gusted to 48 mph.
Like a good defensive line, high pressure has stuffed the incoming storm system in the Deep South with enough dry air to keep us rain-free. High temperatures will range from the upper 50s at the shore, exposed to the chilly ocean breeze, to the upper 60s in Bridgeton and Upper Deerfield Township.
Along the coast, a high risk for rip currents will be present, thanks to an east-northeasterly swell. Swimming will be dangerous Wednesday, not to mention cold without a wet suit. Boating is not recommended either, with high seas and strong winds.
One more round of coastal flooding will be expected with the Wednesday evening high tide. This will be limited to just the most susceptible spots, where standing water will reside on the roads for a few hours.
Winds will diminish Wednesday night as the center of the high pressure moves slightly closer from New England. Expect a partly cloudy sky. Temperatures will fall into the 50s during the evening. Overnight, expect mid-40s for lows everywhere.
We’ll see a little more sunshine Thursday as opposed to Wednesday. Wind gusts will be in the 20s, breezy, but not much to write home about. The east, as opposed to northeast, component of the wind will boost afternoon high temperatures just a bit. In the sunshine, it will feel warm. The seas and surf will wane, though rip currents will remain a threat.
The shelter-in-place orders in New Jersey, and other states, have resulted in a 30% drop in …
The high pressure will move out to sea Friday, pushing what is now the remnants of Arthur toward Bermuda. Losing that strong defense, the rain bottled up in the southern Appalachians will start to push in.
Thankfully, we’ll kick off Memorial Day weekend with a dry Friday. In fact, with southeasterly winds, temperatures will take a jump up. Instead of 50s, expect 60 at the shore, with 70s on the mainland. Clouds will thicken as the day goes on.
Rain will eventually work in Friday evening, and we will have rain showers for our first unofficial night of summer 2020. By Saturday morning, that initial band will have passed.
A coastal storm will then spin up, but it should be too far away for anything more than spotty Saturday showers. Overall, it will not be a washout. It won’t be a beach or pool day, but it’ll be OK to enjoy the outdoors safely.
Wind damage seen in South Jersey, wind alert in effect Tuesday
Strong winds Tuesday, prompted the National Weather Service to issue a wind advisory through 8 p.m. for Ocean, Atlantic and Cape May counties.
Small tree limbs can fall, as well as damage loose, outdoor objects, due to the wind. Sustained winds will be 20 to 30 mph at the shore and in Cape May County, with gusts regularly 40 to 45 mph.
On the mainland, west of the Garden State Parkway, expected winds a bit lower, between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts 35 to 40 mph. However, rouge gusts can be higher. Atlantic City International Airport gusted to 48 mph just before 11 a.m.
Wind Damage Reports
At 2 p.m., Power lines were reported down in Cape May
At 2:30 p.m., Power lines were down near Wildwood.
At 2:49 p.m., a tree fell on Route 30 in Mullica Township on Columbia Road.
At 3:42 p.m., another tree fell in Mullica, this time on the Atlantic City Expressway near Farley Plaza. Lane restrictions were in place.
At 4 p.m., power lines were down in Ocean City.
At 4 p.m., power lines were down in Dennisville.
Strong Winds likely Wednesday
Expect winds to howl again Wednesday, and another advisory may be put into place.
Track of Arthur
Tropical Storm Arthur became Post-Tropical Cyclone Arthur with the 11 a.m. Tuesday advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Even though maximum sustained winds are 60 mph, stronger than Tuesday, Arthur lost the warm core characteristics of a tropical cyclone, leading the change in classification.
Arthur is south of Cape Cod and east of Virginia Beach. It will continue to move east Tuesday, eventually working south to Bermuda Thursday morning.
Also important to note is that a strong, upper level low pressure system sits to our west. This will help push Arthur out to sea, plus provide the pressure gradient needed to generate stiff winds. After Arthur leaves, it will play a role into our weather into Memorial Day Weekend.
Joe's 7-Day Forecast
Be prepared to move your cars, and don’t drive through the floodwater.
However, widespread minor flood stage will be likely with the Tuesday evening high tide. The strong northeast winds, as well as the long fetch of the winds into the ocean, bring the flooding.
The Wednesday morning high tide stays out of flood range, but (just) minor flood stage will occur with the evening high tide in the bays. Tidal waters will recede Thursday, despite the new moon, which brings naturally high tides, Friday.
Coastal flooding conditions have trended downward, thankfully, as Arthur stayed on the southern and eastern edge of the National Hurricane Center's 'cone of uncertainty'. Being farther away, it has a smaller influence on our tides.
Minor flood stage brings the typical, nuisance flooding, seen about two dozen times a year. The first block or two of bayside roadways will likely have water and roads like Route 30 and Route 40 in and near Atlantic City may be closed for a short while. No water inundation will be expected.
Everyone in New Jersey can uses this tool to estimate street flooding.
Input the tide height above the mean higher high water (MHHW) value, using a website like the Stevens' Institute of Technology , and get an estimate of how much coastal flooding you will see during the high tide.
The Surging Seas Risk Finder by ClimateCentral, an independent organization in New Jersey researching and reporting the facts about climate change and its impact on the public, is meant to show the rising waters from climate change. However, it can also be used for specific coastal flooding events.
Cape May County residents can use a local flood mapper tool
Cape May County has an interactive web tool that allows you to see roughly what flooding will be like, down to street level, in the county.
The flood mapper tool allows you to visualize the coastal flooding event by clicking on the region of the county (North, Central and South) you are searching for, clicking on the tide height and moving about the map.
Current tide heights are listed for Ocean City, Sea Isle City and Cape May. However, to view what the flood will look like for a future flood event, the Mid Atlantic River Forecasting Center will help. Using the MARFC page, click on the tide forecast for Ocean City and/or Cape May. For Sea Isle City, you can extrapolate the flood stage forecast in one of the other two sites for there.
Out on the water, rip current and high surf alerts
Do not swim in the waters and small boats should be kept docked Tuesday and Wednesday.
Long period east-northeast swells have developed Tuesday, which will continue into Wednesday and perhaps through the week, too. Furthermore, waves are breaking at 7- to 9- feet. Swimming in these conditions will be dangerous. As a result, a rip currents and high surf alert are both in effect through 6 p.m. Wednesday.
A heat wave that drives you to the shore, warm water temperature that draws you to the surf …
Gale warning will be in effect through 6 a.m. Wednesday. Seas out in the Atlantic Ocean will be between 8- to 12- feet from through Wednesday night, peaking Wednesday. Seas will be 5- to 8- Thursday into Thursday night. On the Delaware Bay, expect 3- to 5-foot waves through Thursday night. Small boats are not recommended to head out on the water.
Expect minor beach erosion as the persistent winds eat away at the shoreline.
Despite the coastal concern, we actually stay mostly to completely dry until Friday. Strong high pressure will be in New England and while there will be clouds and strong winds, no wet weather will be expected until that upper level low pressure moves in for part of Memorial Day weekend.
Memorial Day Weekend
As we welcome visitors to our shores, my thoughts have not changed much on the holiday weekend's forecast. Saturday will be the warmest day of the week, warm enough to lay out on the sand comfortably. However, you will have to dodge a few showers in South Jersey. Thankfully, no washout will be likely.
Sunday and Monday still look dry from Bridgeton to Brigantine and everywhere in between. It'll be comfortably cool - just let the breeze roll through the windows, with highs at or above 70 on the mainland, with the shore in the mid to upper 60s.
Here's the active 2020 hurricane season forecast and storm names
The forecasted active season comes with an "above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline," read the report from Colorado State University's hurricane outlook, which was released April 2. There is a 45% chance of an East Coast landfall, much higher than the 31% average.