Sunday will be the milder of the two weekend days, still loaded with a good amount of sunshine. The rest of the extended forecast will feature two opportunities for much-needed rain and one close call with a storm system.
Temperatures, typical for fall, will differentiate depending on where you are. West of the Garden State Parkway will expect 45-50 degree readings. As you head east toward the shore, mid-50s will be expected.
The high pressure that killed off our record heat Wednesday will leave us Sunday. We’ll still have morning sunshine, as winds will pick up from the south around 15 mph sustained.
Press Meteorologist Joe Martucci will be the featured guest at the New Jersey Coastal Coalit…
During the afternoon, expect some clouds to move in ahead of a cold front. However, there will be no rain here. Expect a warm day and a day to head out without a light layer or jacket. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid-70s.
A partly cloudy sky will take us through Sunday night. The dew point will increase with time. However, I believe it’ll be OK sleeping conditions sans air conditioning. Lows will range from the low 60s on the mainland to the mid-60s in Avalon and the shore. Keep a fan on.
Monday will see our pattern amplify, meaning the jet stream — the river of air that separates cold air to the north and warm air to the south — will move more south to north. For us, that means warmer air will continue to pump in, and the cold front will only crawl east.
So, we’ll get a summery day for Monday. It’ll be a T-shirt-and-shorts day. Afternoon highs will be in the mid- to upper 70s with a twinge of stickiness in the air. Clouds will build in and, eventually, that cold front will move in.
Between 4 and 7 p.m., the potential for showers will begin to exist. We’ll actually see rain coming from both the southeast and the west. However, the shower coverage will be fairly low. I’d go with scattered showers for now that continue into the evening.
The cold front looks to fizzle out over us late Monday night into Tuesday morning. I believe the main potential for showers will exit between 2 and 5 a.m. However, don’t be surprised to catch some rain Tuesday morning. More than likely, though, we’ll just be cloudy.
The sunshine will return during the afternoon. A seasonable day will be had, with highs in the low 70s.
Now, the front that fizzles out will try to pull in a storm that will eject out of the Southeastern United States’ waters. I doubt it reaches us and brings rain Wednesday. However, cloud cover, rough surf and perhaps even coastal flooding will be in the realm of possibility, as it moves northward.
I’m going with a dry forecast Wednesday. It’ll be all fall weather until a cold front brings rain Saturday.
Parts of South Jersey are in a moderate drought
Parts of the Garden State continues to be in a state of drought as of the Oct. 3 update. Salem County, as well as a small part of Gloucester County, were placed in moderate drought stage by the United States Drought Monitor on Thursday.
Only 2.75% of the state is in moderate drought. However, 81.38% of the state is in "Abnormally Dry" conditions. This pre-drought condition includes essentially everywhere south of the White Horse Pike. This is in an increase from 66.97% on Sept. 24.
However, Dave Robinson, the New Jersey State Climatologist, who recommends what areas should be in drought, said the Cumberland County addition might be by accident.
"As far as I knew, the drought monitor wasn't going to show any change in NJ this week. That was my recommendation and the author confirmed that would be the case. Thus, any change is not intentional." said Robinson.
Drought conditions range from abnormally dry, classified as D0, all the way to Exceptional Drought, D4. Here are the threat levels, along with their meaning.
Abnormally Dry - D0
This stage either means the region will go into drought if rain does not come, or will come out of drought.
According to the United States Drought Monitor, Abnormally Dry conditions bring:
Delayed planting and stunted crop growth
An elevated fire danger
Lawns that brown early, along with wilted gardens
A decline in surface water levels
Abnormally Dry conditions can reasonably be expected every 3 to 5 years, according to New Jersey State Climatologist Dave Robinson.
Moderate Drought - D1
This is the first official drought category, which occurs every 5 to 10 years, on average, according to Robinson. During this time:
Irrigation use increases
Hay and grain yields are lower than normal
Honey production declines
Wildfires and ground fires increase
Trees and landscaping are stressed; fish are stressed
Voluntary water conservation is requested; reservoir and lake levels are below normal capacity.
Severe Drought - D2
Severe drought is when day to day impacts are felt by the general population. This occurs every 10 to 20 years, on average, said Robinson. This includes:
Outdoor water restrictions are implemented
Warnings are issued on outdoor burns
Water quality is poor
Golf courses conserve water
Crops are impacted in both yield and fruit size
Producers begin feeding cattle
Poor air quality
Trees are brittle and susceptible to insects
Fish kills occur
Extreme Drought - D3
Extreme drought brings increased strain on resources in the area, including:
Widespread crop loss
Stressed Christmas trees
Wells that run dry
Increased business from well drillers
Wildlife disease outbreak
Extremely reduced flow to ceased flow of water
Warm river temperatures
Extreme drought is rare in New Jersey and occurs every 20 to 50 years on average, according to Robinson.
Exceptional Drought - D4
Exceptional Drought stage is extremely rare in New Jersey. The only time once has occurred since 2000 was between Aug. 20-26, 2002. Even still, the only counties in this category were Salem and a very small part of Cumberland County (Stow Creek and Greenwich).
During this stage, crop less is widespread. Water emergencies go into place as well. In 2002, the Great Egg Harbor River, as other small streams in South Jersey, were at a then all-time low. The former Seaview Mariott Resort in Galloway had to reduce their water usage. Landscapers cut their works because they couldn't cut lawns.