Sunday has the potential to give us the first heat wave of the year, as a 90-degree day is expected. A few storms will be present late into the day and into the night. A cool down back to seasonable weather is expected for early this week.
It’ll feel more like South Florida than South Jersey on Sunday morning. Temperatures will start out in the low 70s, about 10 degrees above average for late June. Any rain from the night should be gone by sunrise.
A low-pressure system will move into New England during the day. Winds will be westerly around the low pressure as it continues to tap into the very warm air in the Mid-South. You will need to take it easy if you will be outside for a while on the mainland. It’ll feel like the mid-90s when you factor in the dew point with the near- 90-degree highs.
Saturday’s numbers were not in at the time of this writing. However, if it does reach 90 degrees both days, as forecasted, then we’d go three days in a row of 90 or greater heat, marking our first heat wave.
The shore will be pretty warm, too. The sea breeze should be pushed back, allowing Atlantic City to be in the mid-80s. However, it will be a good beach day, or for anywhere on the water.
Thunderstorms will flare up, but not until about 4 p.m. This will be associated with a cold front. The storms will be hit or miss, leaving plenty of dry time throughout the day and even after 4 p.m.
Often during the spring and summer, you'll hear a Meteorologist say "isolated", "scattered" …
Storms will be around until 11 p.m. Then we’ll clear out pretty quickly as drier air fills in behind the front. Evening temperatures will be in the 80s, and while it’ll still be around 70 for a Monday morning low, it will not feel as sticky as it did Sunday morning.
Monday and Tuesday look to be about the same. Both will likely be dry, with just a touch of muggy weather. High temperatures will be in the mid-80s out in Bridgeton and inland areas, while Brigantine and the shore will be around 80 or the upper 70s. We’ll have a north-to-northeast wind as a familiar pattern develops, a closed low. In short, a closed low is a low-pressure system cut off from the upper level flow, such as the jet stream. Therefore, it is slow to move. It generally keeps the heat away, while eventually sparking up storms.
It’s a scenario that happens on occasion in Cape May County: You’re sitting on the beach and…
That will be the case for Wednesday and Thursday. Mornings will start generally at 65 to 70 degrees, with areas of fog. Afternoon highs will get up to the mid-80s on the mainland and near or just above 80 on the mainland — seasonable.
Most of your day will be dry and OK for outdoor events. However, we will deal with rounds of scattered afternoon storms.
If you need large chunks of dry time, focus them on the morning.
Colorado State University increases hurricane numbers in June update
A slightly more active hurricane season is now expected for the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, coming off the heels of two named tropical systems in May.
On June 4, Colorado State University provided their annual update to the initial hurricane forecast, which was first done in April.
We have slightly increased our forecast for the 2020 Atlantic basin hurricane season and believe that the season will have well above-average activity," the CSU report read, which is led by Philip J. Klotzbach, Michael M. Bell, and Jhordanna Jones.
Including the storms that have already been named at the time of the update, Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal, CSU forecasts 19 tropical storms or hurricanes to occur. Out of the 19, 9 are forecasted to be hurricanes, with 4 major, category three or higher (sustained winds over 111 mph), hurricanes.
The initial forecast called for 16 tropical storms or hurricanes, with 8 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. This is about the 1981-2010 average of 12.1, 6.4 and 2.7, respectively.
There still remains an above average risk of a major hurricane making landfall on the East Coast of the United States, including the Florida Peninsula. The 46% chance is virtually unchanged from the 45% in the initial, April, forecast. On average, there has been a 31% probability in the last century.
CSU attributes warmer than average waters in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean, slightly warmer than average waters in the tropical Atlantic as reasons for the active forecast. Furthermore, a possible transition from a netural El Nino Southern Oscillation to a La Nina late this summer would promote an an active season. In a La Nina, there's a lack of wind shear, or change of winds with height, which can rip storms apart.
Tropical cyclone names rotate every six years. Exceptionally notable hurricane names, such as Sandy, become retired by the World Meteorological Organization. However, no names were retired in 2014, meaning 2020 will have the same list as then.
Arthur - Used
It's the sixth year in a row that a named tropical system has developed in the Atlantic Hurricane Basin before the June 1 official start.
Bertha - Used
Tropical Storm Bertha is the second tropical storm or greater storm to have formed in the Atlantic Hurricane basin before the official start June 1. This is only the sixth time since records have been kept in the 1700s that two tropical storm or greater storms have formed before the start.
Cristobal - Used
Dolly - Used
Dolly was the third earliest fourth named (D storm) storm in Atlantic Hurricane history, which goes back to 1851.
#Dolly has formed in the North Atlantic - the 3rd earliest 4th Atlantic named storm formation on record (since 1851). Danielle is earliest on 6/20/2016. Debby is 2nd earliest on 6/23/2012 at 12 UTC. Dolly in 2020 formed on June 23 at 1615 UTC. #hurricane pic.twitter.com/1Ha6ZnxHqc— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) June 23, 2020