One of the easiest seven-day forecasts of the year is here, as high pressure will dominate the landscape until the middle of next week.
We start out with a windows-open, clean feel outside. Temperatures around sunrise will start in the 60s, with perhaps a few 50s in the Pine Barrens. Sunshine will be plentiful and stay plentiful throughout the day. A light north wind will blow throughout the day. Temperatures will warm to near 80 by noon. Then, a sea breeze will likely put those east of the parkway in the 70s, with places like Lawrence Township rising into the mid-80s.
A comfortable evening will be on tap under a clear sky. Temperatures will stay in the 70s. If you picked this weekend as one to come to the shore a day early, you lucked out.
The forecast through Wednesday can be determined by the position of the high pressure. Friday, like Thursday, will have high pressure to our west, drawing in northerly winds. Plentiful morning sun will occur with fair-weather clouds, until the sea breeze clears the coast out. Highs will be in the low to mid-80s.
Saturday through Monday will see high pressure stay overhead to just slightly offshore. That will bring in a weak “return” flow from the south and southwest. We’ll still keep more sun than clouds in the forecast. Temperatures will be more in the mid- to upper 80s. That’s still seasonable, though. It will not be sticky, but you’ll feel some moisture present. The windows can stay open at night.
High pressure then retreats further offshore for Tuesday and Wednesday. The southwesterly flow will increase as a cold front increases. Temperatures will near 90 on the mainland, though I still won’t say it’ll be overly sticky. What will happen, though, is it will bring isolated p.m. showers and storms. It won’t be enough to cancel plans, but you will want to focus any hours-long projects to the morning. You’ll likely want the air conditioning on all day.
When the heat is at its hottest, the summer ocean temperatures can often be at its coldest.
Admittedly, this is a pretty simple (and comfortable) forecast. So, let’s talk about the upwelling that happened at Atlantic City. Last Wednesday, water temperatures were in in the low 70s. On Monday and Tuesday, it dropped to near 60, with even a 57.4 degree reading on Tuesday afternoon. What happened?
Persistent south or southwest winds pushed the surface water further offshore, which is the warmer layer. What replaced it was deeper water, which is cooler and, beneficially, more nutrient rich. To see a 10-15 degree drop requires a few days of offshore flow and we had that throughout the period.
With no direct offshore winds expected until Sunday (north Thursday, light and variable Friday and south Saturday), expect temperatures to rebound.