High pressure will slowly fade from the area Wednesday. Then, all attention turns to a pair of potent low-pressure systems that will impact Thursday through Sunday.
Wednesday morning will be much like the prior 24 hours.
It will be seasonable and clear. Temperatures range from the upper 20s on the mainland to the mid-30s along the shore, courtesy of radiational cooling. However, typical in these set-ups, we will warm up to about the same everywhere.
A high temperature in the mid-50s is expected, a couple of degrees warmer than Tuesday.
There will plenty of morning sun, but the sky will darken during the afternoon, the first hints on what will be a rough stretch for the shores.
Low pressure will move into the Midwest on Thursday. A secondary low pressure will then form off the Jersey Shore early Friday.
That first low pressure will “collapse” into the secondary low and strengthen rapidly before finally moving out to sea.
Rain develops Thursday afternoon, likely between noon and 3 p.m. The rain should be quick to turn steady, and the umbrella will be needed for the afternoon commute.
The heaviest rain falls Thursday night into Friday morning. Give yourself a few extra minutes driving.
As we go into Friday afternoon, rain will become scattered. I believe we end up with a dry Friday night.
We need to pay attention to the rain’s effect on the ocean and bay water. An extra 1 to 2 feet of water will put the shores in minor flood stage from Thursday afternoon high tide through Saturday. Moderate flood stage is still a threat along the ocean side on Friday as the onshore flow increases.
At moderate flood stage, water overtops the natural dune. Shoreline roadways will often be completely flooded.
The high surf usually associated with this level of flooding pounds piers, boardwalks and docks. Houses can be damaged if they are not raised.